China’s energy revolution is advancing in depth and is writing a new chapter in the high-quality development of energy. As the world’s largest energy consumer and producer, China is also actively promoting the green transformation and development of global energy. Looking to the future, China’s energy consumption will continue to upgrade, and a new energy consumption model will gradually take shape; the energy supply structure and layout will become more reasonable, the emergency peak-shaving reserve capacity will be greatly improved, and the smart energy production system will be built in an orderly manner; more independent innovations will emerge in the field of energy technology, driving the transformation and upgrading of the energy industry; the energy system revolution will continue to deepen, strive to restore the commodity attributes of energy, and build a fair, open, competitive and orderly market system; international energy cooperation will bear more fruits around co-construction, consultation and sharing, the degree of cooperation will be further deepened, the global energy governance system will be more reasonable, and China’s national energy security will be guaranteed under open conditions.
1. The energy consumption revolution has been promoted. Energy demand has grown at a slow pace, while efficiency has steadily improved. A new integrated consumption model has begun to emerge.
1. By 2030, China’s energy consumption growth rate will continue to slow down, and greenhouse gas emissions are expected to peak before 2030.
China will orderly promote the formation of a new development pattern of “dual circulation” and a green energy system, and strive to achieve the goal of carbon emissions peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. To achieve the goal of the new development pattern, it is urgent to promote changes in both the demand and supply sides of China’s economy and society, strengthen the domestic demand drive on the demand side, and focus on filling the weak links and shortcomings of key industries on the supply side. The potential structural changes on both the supply and demand sides will promote the new characteristics of the energy-economy relationship in the “14th Five-Year Plan”, and energy production and consumption will enter a new stage of development. Comprehensively judged, the overall trend of energy demand continuing to maintain a slow growth will not change. It is expected that during the “14th Five-Year Plan”, the growth rate of primary energy demand will decline slightly steadily, with an average annual growth rate of about 2.5%, and an average energy consumption elasticity coefficient of about 0.43. In 2025, the total energy consumption will exceed 5.5 billion tons of standard coal; after efforts, non-fossil energy and clean energy such as natural gas will account for more than 30% in total; oil demand will be about 700 million tons, accounting for nearly 18%, and coal will account for less than 50%. Energy quality continues to improve. It is estimated that in 2025, the total terminal energy demand of the whole society will be around 4.5 billion tons of standard coal, and the total electricity consumption of the whole society will be about 9 trillion kWh. The average annual growth rate during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period will be about 3.5%, and the terminal energy electrification rate will increase by 2 percentage points compared with 2020. Energy efficiency has steadily improved, and energy consumption per unit of GDP has decreased by about 13% compared with 2020.
After 2025, the direction of clean, low-carbon, smart, efficient, economical and safe energy development will be clearer, and the total greenhouse gas emissions will gradually peak. It is expected that the growth rate of primary energy demand will further slow down to about 1% from 2025 to 2030, and will not exceed 6 billion tons of standard coal by 2030. The demand structure transformation route of coal reduction, gas increase, oil stability and accelerated development of non-fossil energy will be clearer. The proportion of coal demand will drop to about 40%, and the combined proportion of natural gas and non-fossil energy demand will increase to more than 40%. Carbon dioxide emissions generated by energy utilization will peak between 2025 and 2030. The scale of terminal energy demand is expected to be around 4.6 billion tons of standard coal, of which the terminal energy demand of industry and transportation is expected to peak around 2030, and building energy consumption, including commercial and residential energy consumption, will continue to grow.
2. Energy consumption continues to upgrade, and the new integrated consumption model is becoming more mature
With the transformation and development of the energy system towards the energy internet, the energy consumption model of industry and transportation will change from the traditional single service model to the diversified service model. The industrial sector will break the traditional energy “silo” model, gradually form a flexible comprehensive energy service demand that meets the needs of various market entities in the entire industrial park, and establish an efficient model for transformation and upgrading to electrification, energy cascade utilization and recycling; transportation energy will strive to achieve electrification, networking, intelligence, sharing and green development, and gradually move towards the integration of the “five transformations”. New energy consumption methods such as electric vehicles and hydrogen energy storage are gradually increasing, and the energy demand side management and response demand market are beginning to take shape. The construction of energy service markets such as peak regulation, frequency regulation, voltage regulation, standby, and surplus energy sales is accelerating to better meet the diversified service needs of consumers such as dispersion and point-like. The virtual economy is organically combined with the real economy, and business models that rely on energy service networks to discover and tap higher added value are becoming popular, and a fairer, more efficient, more sustainable, safer, and people-oriented energy consumption model is steadily being established.
The construction of the “electricity, heat, cold and water integration” building energy service market is progressing in an orderly manner, and the customized service model for energy consumption is becoming more mature. New consumption models with scale effects that aggregate and integrate various types of energy consumers and energy consumption products and services through market-oriented means are gradually emerging, and the terminal energy integration service business with supply and demand interaction is gradually growing. Break through the traditional point-to-point service and transform to all-round service, integrate business consulting, planning and design, engineering construction, operation and maintenance, terminal services and other links, cross-border integration and development, innovate general contracting methods, and provide overall solutions; coordinate the development and construction of building energy terminals and integrated integrated energy supply infrastructure, promote multi-energy coordinated supply and comprehensive cascade utilization of energy, and meet users’ needs for electricity, heat, cold, gas and other energy sources; realize the complementary synergy of different energy types, provide more diverse and flexible energy options, and meet users’ energy needs in all aspects.
3. Energy consumers gradually transform into prosumers, giving consumers more choices
The role of energy consumers has changed, and energy producers and consumers have gradually become active in the market. In the energy system dominated by traditional fossil energy, the main bodies of energy production, processing, storage, transportation and consumption have clear division of labor. Consumers are the end-users in the energy system, with a single role and long-term solidification.
With the emergence of distributed photovoltaic, wind power, microgrid and other micro-energy systems, more and more enterprises, public buildings and households that were originally simple energy consumers are expected to become energy producers. Energy consumers can generate electricity or store energy by themselves. In addition to meeting their own energy needs, they can also sell surplus electricity to the power market or integrated energy service market for others to use, and gradually explore the integration of production, sales and use.
The energy consumption market environment is gradually maturing, and the status of consumers is changing from passive acceptance to active choice. As the reform of the power system and the oil and gas system are advancing in depth, energy consumers’ awareness of independently choosing energy types is gradually increasing, and the relationship between energy consumers and suppliers is beginning to change from a one-way supply and demand relationship to a two-way interactive model. Smart terminals such as smart meters are gradually being widely adopted, and energy consumers can understand their own energy consumption, the output of distributed renewable power sources, and the charging and discharging of energy storage facilities in a more timely manner, and actively adjust their own energy consumption behavior based on market signals and system operation conditions.
As models such as distributed energy storage, electric vehicles, and demand-side response that provide peak-shaving services for energy systems mature one after another, energy consumers can flexibly switch roles, including delivering energy back to the system and providing auxiliary services such as peak-shaving for the power grid system, gradually becoming an active regulatory force in the energy system.
(II) The energy supply revolution has been promoted, green energy has entered a new stage of comprehensive development, and a multi-wheel driven energy supply system has gradually taken shape.
1. Optimize the layout and structure of energy production and increase efforts to develop green energy
We will continue to promote structural reforms on the energy supply side and further increase the scale of clean, low-carbon, green energy supply. We will maintain steady growth in energy supply. It is expected that by 2030, the total domestic primary energy production will be controlled at around 5 billion tons of standard coal, and the supply of natural gas and non-fossil energy is expected to account for more than 45% of the total energy supply. We will continue to increase the intensity of oil and gas exploration and development. By 2030, the annual domestic crude oil production will be stable at more than 200 million tons, and the natural gas production will be around 280 billion cubic meters. We will coordinate the construction of large hydropower bases and the transformation and optimization of small hydropower stations, and safely and efficiently develop nuclear power in coastal areas and the comprehensive utilization of small reactor nuclear energy. We will adjust and optimize the development layout, promote wind power development on both land and sea, and promote the diversified development of solar energy. By 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation will reach more than 1 billion kilowatts. We will implement large-scale and clean coal-fired units, accelerate the elimination of backward coal-fired power units, improve the efficiency of coal-fired power units, and fully complete the ultra-low emission transformation of coal-fired power plants. The proportion of coal-fired power ultra-low emission units will reach 100%, and the emission standards will be world-leading.
Combine resource endowment with the spatial layout of high-quality economic development, and optimize and adjust the regional layout of energy supply. East China, South China and Central China focus on ensuring the supply of oil, gas, renewable energy and nuclear energy, give priority to the development of distributed energy, fully consume local resources and actively transfer surplus green energy from other regions; Northwest China and North China focus on ensuring the supply of fossil energy and renewable energy, build large-scale comprehensive energy bases, and ensure the balance of national energy supply and demand; Northeast China focuses on ensuring the supply of natural gas and renewable energy, and accelerates the elimination of backward coal production capacity; Southwest China focuses on ensuring the supply of natural gas and hydropower, and actively promotes the construction of a 100 billion-level natural gas production base in the Sichuan Basin and hydropower bases such as the Jinsha River. Accelerate the construction of strategic succession areas for offshore oil and gas resources, and steadily promote the comprehensive development and utilization of ocean energy. Optimize the layout of the refining industry, and strive to solve the contradiction that refined oil in Central China and Southwest China mainly relies on transfers from outside the region. Pilot the promotion and development and utilization of hydrogen energy in some areas with conditions.
2. Strengthen the construction of energy transmission and distribution networks and storage facilities, and strive to improve the energy emergency peak-shaving storage capacity
Strengthen the construction of energy emergency reserve system and improve the ability to ensure energy supply security. Accelerate the construction of oil reserve system, promote the diversification of oil reserve methods, make full use of the opportunity period of international low oil prices to increase the scale of oil reserves, and reach more than 90 days of oil reserves by 2030. Increase the construction of gas storage, accelerate the construction of coastal LNG and urban gas storage peak-shaving facilities, and establish a multi-level natural gas reserve peak-shaving system. It is expected that by 2030, 65 billion cubic meters of gas storage peak-shaving capacity will be built, accounting for more than 12% of natural gas consumption. Accelerate the construction of high-quality peak-shaving power sources such as leading hydropower stations, large pumped storage power stations, natural gas peak-shaving power stations, and electrochemical energy storage facilities. It is expected that by 2030, the installed capacity of pumped storage power stations will reach about 140 million kilowatts. Increase the emergency reserves of local commercial coal, and strive to form a reserve capacity of 15% of annual coal consumption by 2030.
We will orderly promote the construction of energy transportation channels and significantly improve the energy resource allocation capacity. We will improve the railway coal transportation channels, build supporting coastal ports and terminals, optimize inland waterway transportation channels, and improve the inter-regional coal transportation capacity. It is estimated that the railway coal transportation capacity will reach about 3.5 billion tons/year in 2030. We will strengthen the construction of inter-provincial oil and gas transmission trunk lines and regional pipeline interconnection, and accelerate the construction of regional refined oil pipelines between cities. It is estimated that the total mileage of crude oil and refined oil pipelines will be about 40,000 kilometers and 50,000 kilometers respectively in 2030; the total mileage of natural gas pipelines will be about 180,000 kilometers, and the annual gas transmission capacity of trunk lines will exceed 500 billion cubic meters. At the same time, we will promote LNG tank container multimodal transport and “point supply” and other flexible gas supply methods. We will further improve the regional and provincial backbone power grids, focus on improving the utilization efficiency of the power grid, and estimate that the inter-provincial power transmission capacity will be about 500 million kilowatts by 2030; we will fully complete the transformation and upgrading of rural power grids, accelerate the construction of distribution networks in remote and poor areas, and focus on improving the level of universal rural power service.
3. Promote the integrated optimization of energy supply and accelerate the construction of a multi-energy complementary smart energy production system
Promote the deep integration of energy production and information technology, and accelerate the intelligent development of energy production. Focus on promoting the large-scale application of 5G, artificial intelligence, etc. in energy production systems, and vigorously improve the intelligence level of energy production systems. By 2030, intelligent coal mining will be widely used in major coal-producing areas in China, and the construction of “5G+smart mines” will make significant progress; vigorously promote the construction of smart oil and gas fields, and make major breakthroughs in digital transformation and intelligent development. All oil and gas production enterprises have fully built digital oil and gas fields, and the digital coverage rate of oil and gas wells and stations in production nationwide has reached 100%; the construction of smart power plants has made significant progress, and the construction of smart power plants by major power generation companies accounts for more than 60%. Vigorously promote the popularization and utilization of distributed energy such as wind power, photovoltaic power generation, and micro gas turbines, and further promote the application of new small and micro energy power generation forms to maximize the use of green energy. Vigorously develop natural gas distributed energy, and increase efforts to promote the deep integration and development of natural gas power generation with new energy such as wind power, solar power generation, biomass power generation, and energy storage.
Accelerate the layout of multi-energy coordinated integrated energy network and actively promote the construction of energy intelligent dispatching system. By 2030, the power business environment will strive to reach world-class level; the construction of oil and gas intelligent pipelines and smart pipe networks will achieve significant results, and intelligent pipelines will be fully built, and oil and gas resources will be fully dispatched in an intelligent and automated manner. Based on the smart grid, it will be interconnected with various types of energy networks such as oil and gas pipelines and thermal pipelines, and coordinated with various types of energy storage units/power stations such as chemical energy storage and compressed air energy storage. It will establish orderly charging, vehicle access to the grid (V2G) and other demand responses with new energy transportation networks such as electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and innovate business models with commercial entities such as virtual power plants (VPPs) and energy companies to form a comprehensive energy network and energy optimization configuration platform with coordinated transformation of multiple energy forms and coordinated operation of centralized and distributed energy. Promote the construction of energy intelligent dispatching system, integrate various energy resources such as oil, coal, natural gas and electricity in the region, and promote the exploration of intelligent dispatching between various energy resources.
China’s energy revolution continues to advance in depth, and more independent innovations are emerging in the field of energy technology, driving the transformation and upgrading of the energy industry; the energy system revolution continues to deepen, striving to restore the commodity attributes of energy and build a fair, open, competitive and orderly market system; international energy cooperation has yielded more fruitful results around co-construction, co-consultation and sharing, the degree of cooperation has been further deepened, the global energy governance system has become more reasonable, and China’s national energy security has been guaranteed under open conditions. (Source: Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network)